Identify
Price data are analysed across multiple markets and time horizons. A position is taken only when the model detects a sufficiently clear movement.
The Arkad CTA programme
Two engines.
One integrated portfolio.
Arkad trades global futures markets using rules-based methods. Trend following forms the programme's core, complemented by quantitative macro models that seek other types of systematic opportunities.
Arkad at a glance
Price movement is information.
Arkad responds to how markets actually move—not to forecasts of how they ought to develop.
The programme can take both long and short positions in equity indices, interest rates, currencies, energy, metals and agricultural commodities. The aim is to spread exposure across markets driven by different economic forces and reduce dependence on any single market.
Risk information: Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The models make decisions consistently according to predefined rules. This reduces dependence on intuition, mood and narratives that may sound convincing in hindsight but are difficult to turn into a repeatable process.
Equity indicesInterest ratesCurrenciesEnergyMetalsAgriculture
01
Approximately 80%
The programme's core
Trend following
Trend following does not try to identify the exact bottom or sell at the exact top. It waits for a movement to become established, takes a position in the same direction and remains invested while the trend persists.
Size
Position size is adjusted to market volatility. A more volatile market will normally receive a smaller position.
Follow
Winning positions are given time to develop. The programme can be long in rising markets and short in falling markets.
Exit
When the movement weakens or reverses, the position is closed according to the model's rules—without defending an earlier forecast.
Small losses are part of the method
Trend following does not need to be right on most trades. In sideways and erratic markets, several signals may end in smaller losses. These are part of the method and can occur before a larger and more persistent price movement develops.
Trend-following strategies can produce many smaller gains and losses while depending on a limited number of larger winning positions. A strong trend must be allowed room to continue. This also means that part of an open profit is normally given back before the model can determine that the trend has ended.
We do not try to understand why a market moves. We try to respond with discipline when it moves.
Why trends emerge
Markets do not adjust instantly.
Trends need not depend on a temporary market secret. They can develop from economic frictions, human behaviour and large capital flows.
Supply takes time to change
A mine, factory or farm cannot adjust production immediately. Investment and cutbacks occur with a delay and may create persistent imbalances between supply and demand.
Information spreads gradually
Investors interpret new information at different speeds. Anchoring, herd behaviour and reluctance to change views may cause price movements to last longer than expected.
Large decisions take time
Institutions can rarely alter large portfolios in a single day. Rules, mandates and liquidity mean that purchases and sales are often implemented over time.
Portfolio before forecast
The signal opens the trade. Risk management holds the programme together.
A signal is never assessed in isolation. Volatility, correlation and total exposure determine how much weight each market receives.
- Volatility adjustmentPosition size is adjusted to each market's volatility and the portfolio's total exposure.
- CorrelationSeveral similar positions should not quietly become one large macro bet.
- Broad diversificationA market that has been uninteresting for a long time may produce the next significant trend.
- Robust rulesSimple, testable principles are preferred to models finely tuned to historical data.
Why not 100% trend?
When one engine is waiting, the other can work.
Trend following is strongest when movements persist. When markets instead move back and forth, signals may be short-lived. The programme's core is therefore complemented by quantitative macro models that seek other recurring relationships.
02
Approximately 20%
The complementary engine
Quantitative macro
Quantitative macro uses systematic, statistically tested models to analyse global macro markets. Decisions are based on data and repeatable rules, not on a manager's discretionary economic forecast.
The models may work with direction, relative value and relationships between contracts and markets. The intention is to complement trend following with signals that do not depend on the same extended price movements.
Short-term anomalies
The models seek recurring deviations where price, volatility or relationships between markets temporarily behave differently from normal.
Relative value and spreads
The focus is on relationships between related markets or maturities rather than solely on whether an entire market will rise or fall.
Mean reversion
Short-term overreactions and temporary deviations may create opportunities when price relationships return towards more normal levels.
Combined signals
A short-term anomaly becomes more relevant when several observations support the same opportunity. The decision then rests on a combined signal rather than a single assumption.
Quantitative does not mean risk-free
Statistical relationships may weaken as markets change or more participants pursue the same pattern. Data quality, capacity and overfitting are therefore central risks. Models should be robust outside the historical period in which they were developed and are used as a complement—not as a pretext for false precision.
The whole
Two different ways of reading the same global markets.
FeatureTrend following ≈80%Quantitative macro ≈20%
SeeksPersistent price movementsRelative and shorter-term systematic relationships
PositionsDirectional, long or shortDirectional and relative
StrengthClear, persistent market regimesA broader range of market environments and opportunities
ChallengeSideways and erratic marketsModel change, capacity and overfitting
Combining the engines does not eliminate risk and does not guarantee smooth returns. The purpose is to reduce dependence on a single market or strategy working at the right time.
Next step
Explore Arkad further.
Review the programme's reported performance or contact Hallenborg CTA for more information about strategy, structure and risk.
Risk information: Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This information describes the programme's general approach and does not constitute an offer or individual investment advice.